How Risk is calculated:

Total of all Player's Forces Stats (Off, Def, Str)
(Speed is added as a separate number)
This is divided from the Total of all of the enemy forces Stats (Off, Def, Str)
(Speed is added as a separate number)

Example:

You have a Unit of Humans, they are level 2 (+1 in Off)
Humans - Level 2
Offense:2Defense:1Strength:2
Speed:M/2Carry Cap:2Max Tools:2
Max Weapons:2Cost:10GPUpkeep5GP
Special/Skills:Diplomacy + 5%.
Items Carried:
Items Equipped:
Weapons Equipped:
Armor Equipped:

You are fighting (scouting first) a Unit of Elves.
Elves
Offense:1Defense:1Strength:1
Speed:F/3Carry Cap:2Max Tools:1
Max Weapons:2Cost:10GPUpkeep5GP
Special/Skills:+10% to Offense and Damage in Ranged Combat
Items Carried:
Items Equipped:
Weapons Equipped:
Armor Equipped:

Your Stats are totaled:
Off 2 + Def 1 + Str 2 = "5"
Your Medium Speed is worth "3".

Their Stats are totaled:
Off 1 + Def 1 + Str 1 = "3"
Their Fast Speed is worth "4".

Speed is compared first (3-4=-1).  "+1" is added to the Enemy forces because they are faster.

So 5/4 is compared as a ratio.

1:1 = 50% odds.
Anything greater than 1:1 is expressed in 'spreads' of 25 percentiles = +10% chance of winning the first.)  So 5/4 = 1.25, or in other words: a 60% chance of winning.

Each level of risk gives a different message when Scouted for Information (If you Scout the Grid when there are known hostiles.)  The following is known as the "Risk Assessment"

Your PointsEnemy PointsRatioRisk  Assessment
140.2520%
240.530%
340.7540%
44150%
541.2560%
641.570%
741.7580%
84290%
942.25100%

100% = You will more than likely win this fight.
90% = There's some risk, but you'll win.
80% = This is risky.
70% = Significant Risk
60% = This is dangerous.
50% = This will result in in casualties.
40% = This is insane
30% = Your troops will hate you for this.
20% = You are a madman.
10% = This is beyond absurd.

When scouting - A Partial Success yields: A message within two steps of the truth.

A Normal Success yields: A message within 1 step of the truth.

A Significant Success yields: The correct Message.

Each level of success beyond Normal gives you exact information about the forces you are observing (# of weapons, equipment, armor, leader presence, leader skills, spells etc.)

Significant = Tells you individual weapons OR armor equipped + If Leader is present.
Astounding = Tells you weapons and armor equipped + Leader presence + Leader bonus (If it's a full leader bonus, or partial.)
Epic = Tells you all of the above + Spells + Skills.

Important aspects to understand:
  1. Any "Risk Assessment" assumes that 100% of the Units in your Usurpation are present for the fight.
  2. Will NOT take into account the presence of your leaders, nor their leaders.
  3. Does not take into account the quality of your gear.
  4. Does not consider Artifacts.


- So, the odds may be tipped slightly more in your favor if you bring leaders, have a good Throne Room, have good artifacts, and/or have good quality equipment.