Because the game has actually advanced this far this time (never happened in games 1 and 2), it is time to demystify obscurity in order to put everyone on an equal track.


1) Obscurity is a hidden-value that is assigned to each LAIR.

2) Obscurity begins at 100 for each lair.

3) Obscurity is BUILT by Defensive Structures (can be renovated up to level 10, providing a huge bonus to Obscurity, for THAT LAIR.)

4) Obscurity is downgraded (permanently) by the presence of Artifacts.

5) Obscurity is downgraded (permanently) for each Legendary success achieved by ANYONE.

6) Obscurity is downgraded (temporarily) for each Epic success achieved by YOU.   This is repaired at a rate of 1 per month automatically (combined with #9 and #10 below, NOT a separate number.)

7) Obscurity is downgraded (temporarily) for each partial failure made by YOU (-1, 25% chance.)  This type of Obscurity loss is recovered at the end of the month by a number equal to 1+Renovation Level of your Defensive Structures. [This penalty only applies if the failure occurs in a HOT BED grid]

8) Obscurity is downgraded (temporarily) for each complete failure made by YOU (-1, 50% chance.)

9) Obscurity is downgraded (temporarily) for each Raid on Caravans, CPs, and similar (NOT Random, wandering Monsters).  These cause -1 obscurity.  This is repaired at a rate of 1 per month automatically.

10) Obscurity is downgraded (temporarily) for each Attack on Caravans, CPs, and similar (NOT Random, wandering Monsters).  These cause -2 obscurity.  This is repaired at a rate of 1 per month automatically (combined with #9 above, NOT a separate number.)
Regardless of how bad your Obscurity becomes - players cannot discover information about you with any Scout/Hunt for an Encounter roll of less than 100.  (Some Artifacts may break this rule.)

Your Obscurity is added to "100" (the minimum # required), and that is the "threshold" of awareness.  Any Scout roll made that equals or exceeds this value, WHEN MADE IN A GRID WITHIN FOUR GRIDS OF ANY OF YOUR LAIRS, will provide a small piece of data on your location.  Once the player has enough information to accurately guess the location of your Lair; and conducts a Scout check, they must beat your threshold of awareness again; and if they do so, they discover the location of your Lair.

Example:
Grog the Untamed has been living the wild life.  He has robbed the rich, smashed the poor, pillaged a few horses, and ate a few caravans.  He's also failed to upgrade his defensive structures (who needs defense when he's so terrifying?)  As such, his Obscurity at his only lair has fallen to 50.

This sets his Threshold at 150.

Sneaky the TheQuickFoot decides to do some investigating after hearing rumors of Grog's attacks in a nearby area.  After doing some scouting, with all of his Goblins: he rolls a 161!  This yields some interesting information:

"You gain some insight into the location one another Usurper:

They are located generally near (within 3 grids) of the mountain range just to the West of you."

Now, on the face of it: this is not that impressive of information.  However, each time you succeed at this: you will gradually be able to narrow your search pattern, until one day you locate the lair.